Soulmate Gem
Soulmate Gem
Photo: Pavel Danilyuk
For same-sex married couples, the break-up rate falls from roughly 8 percent for those who have been together for 5 years to under 1 percent for those who have been together for at least 20 years. For heterosexual married couples, the rate falls from a shade over 3 percent to less than 1 percent over the same period.
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Read More »Broadly, the takeaway is that time really does help reduce the likelihood that two people go their separate ways. And rather quickly at that. Notice how steep the curve is for both straight and gay couples early on. Sixty percent of the unmarried couples who had been together for less than 2 months during the first wave of Rosenfeld's study were no longer together when he checked up again the following year. But once a relationship lasts a year, the likelihood that it ends begins to drop precipitously. Over the first five years, the rate falls by roughly 10 percentage points each year, reaching about 20 percent for both straight and gay couples. And the rate continues to fall until about 15 years in, when it levels off for both—at just over 10 percent for gay couples and roughly 5 percent for straight couples. Why? Well, it's fairly straightforward. As Rosenfeld noted in 2014, "the longer a couple stays together, the more hurdles they cross together, the more time and effort they have jointly invested into the relationship, and the more bound together they are." As Rosenfeld continues his study, more of the gaps in his data will likely fill in. There is, at the moment, insufficient data for same-sex couples who have been married for fewer than 5 years (which is why that line begins later than the others). There is also too small a sample size for same-sex married couples who have been together for longer than 35 years. That he hopes to remedy, too. And it might very well mimic that which he has observed for their straight counterparts, which rises after three decades (resultant, one might imagine, from some sort of mid or late-life crisis). Still, it's been a fascinating dive, digging into the intricacies of human relationships. "One of the things I’ve learned from interviewing people face to face about their romantic histories is how complicated the stories can be."
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